Well here I am, your non-expert analyst, pretending I know Jack Schitt.
Just pretend I am at least as good at analyzing primaries as one of those Cable “News” Channel hot 20-something fangirls with the oddly common froggy-croak-vibrato sounds at the ends of all their sentences, and please join me in a game of Play Along With Uppity.
I’m going to call the next boatload of Primary races. I won’t deal with South Carolina’s (February 27) numbers because it does look as if, unless Hillary is filmed slapping a puppy, she wins that one- although Bernie has showed up there and got practically run out of a church on a rail, but he did have a 5000 predominantly White Person rally. So no need to say much more about South Carolina except Hillary will win there. Instead, I am going to focus on Super Tuesday.
Super Tuesday is probably the most important day in Democratic Primaries. In order to win a primary and become the Democratic Candidate, either Hillary or Bernie will need to win 2383 delegates at our National Convention. On Super Tuesday, 865 delegates will be pledged, which puts into perspective how important this day is.
I’ve been looking closely at the upcoming Super Tuesday primary states with an eye toward looking at what Bernie can and can’t ‘take’. Among other places, I used 538’s site without focusing on predictions as much as the collections of polls – and here is what I THINK. I emphasize THINK because the truth is, when it comes to accurately predicting anything other than the weather (sinuses), I don’t actually KNOW shit. But I can do this anyways, because it’s my blog.
The Super Tuesday states where primaries will be conducted on March 1 are:
Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming. American Samoa Democrats and Alaska will also caucus on this date. (Note: Louisiana is scheduled for March 5). I hope I didn’t leave any out. If I did, let me know.
In taking a look at these states, I see Hillary clearly ahead in nearly all of them, but with slightly to heavily reduced number spreads since tracking began when nobody even knew who the hell Bernie was.
Ok, here goes:
In Alabama, there appears to be no polls listed at all, so there’s no clue unless a poll arrives this week. Poor Alabama, they can’t get no respect. I will update here if and when any poll anywhere emerges. Update!: I’m calling this one for Hillary thanks to Fredster, who pointed out that John Lewis was in Birmingham stumping for Hillary and the reception was, as Donald would say, Terrific.
In Arkansas, there are only two polls, both in February, with Hillary ahead by 32 and 25 points respectively. Nate has this one called for Hillary now and I don’t see that changing since it’s Clinton Birth and Governor Country.
Colorado– I have no poll access to Colorado. I do know it’s a pretty state and it’s still there. If polls become available, I will update. The Bernie NH Ground Director who is under investigation for Election Fraud hails from Colorado, so as the old saying goes, if you can’t trust a man in one thing, don’t trust him in the other. Bernie also seems sweet on Colorado. That combo leads me to believe he will take the state without any polls at all. If polls come out, I might find myself changing my mind.
Nate Silver has Georgia called for Hillary at “Greater than 99%” right now. I can see why — with two February polls showing Hillary at +41 and +34. Even with the point reduction, it’s not hard for me to deduce she takes this one. It’s just not White enough for Bernie.
Massachusetts is where I think it gets sticky for Hillary. I felt this from Day 1, because it’s St. Elizabeth’s country and, while I have no basis in fact on this, I am nonetheless certain that she is working for Bernie there. While Hillary was well ahead in past polls, a February poll exists and that one shows Bernie at +7 as if February 16. A second poll conducted thru the 21st has Bernie and Hillary tied . So it’s pretty easy to see how he can win Mass, especially since he plans to campaign there. So they are either going to tie in delegates more or less, or Lizzy’s dreams of VP status in Chavez heaven is going to help Bernie pull a fast one. So I say Bernie can take Mass, but it probably won’t be some delegate blowout. And after all, winning is about delegates. I think that if Bernie wins the North East’s answer to overtaxing, Hillary will put a big enough dent in the location counts to keep Bernie from crowing like a geriatric rooster over a win. All things taken into account, and especially Chief VP Wannabee’s presence, I think Mass will go into Bernie’s win column.
Minnesota. Oh, Minnesota. Who knows what lurks in their left-brained minds? The good good GOOD news for Hillary is named Al Franken. I think Al will hump and stump for her just as she did for him. He did after all say he didn’t think he would be a Senator today if it weren’t for Hillary. He has said that he is so ready for Hillary that he feels “No need to scope out another candidate”. And he said that in 2014. Nuff said. A clown who did a great job of impersonating idiots, I admit I had my doubts about him. I was wrong. Al Franken became a very serious Senator immediately and I’ll bet his state loves him. Here’s hoping he can transfer that love unto Hillary, because Bernie has sniffed out and smelled Minnesota’s Liberal Roots at 100 paces, and I’ll bet he drags his wrinkled old ass there very soon. I’ll bet he drops the Late Senator Wellstone’s name too. Thus, this state falls into the category of Uppity Just Isn’t Stupid Enough To Try To Call This one. But I’ll call it for Hillary anyways, just for spite — and because I know how tenacious Al Franken is.
Oklahoma – Two polls have Hillary ahead at +16 early in February and down to +2 as of February 16. So her lead is down to peanuts. I have seen a number of sights and Twittees from Oklahoma for Bernie. I suspect he has a fair number of die-hard Bernies there who have been organizing for him. If he hasn’t been there, he’ll probably go there as Bernie is fully aware he needs to win a few. However, Big Dawg was there recently, stumping for Hillary and for ‘Getting Out The Vote, preferably for Hillary. It appears that Oklahoma had the lowest voter turnout in 50 years. So I’m betting they just don’t give a crap any longer. It gets that way when nobody cares about you. But I’ll bet any U of Oklahoma and Oklahoma’s state college students will be voting for that unicorn they will never see, barring an early Spring break. As possible confirmation of my theory, Hillary’s drop in lead this month from 16 to 2 tells me Bernie is in their heads. I’m calling this one for the Old Man.
Texas – This one looks like it’s Hillary’s, and I hear tell they have eliminated the skanky caucus and are just going with a Primary, thank you Jesus. Two polls have her down to + 23 from +34 since the beginning of February. Fortunately, the primary is March 1, so Bernie is unlikely to bern her very much on this one unless she slapped 2 puppies and a kitten on camera.
Tennessee– This one looks easy for Hillary, with two February polls of +32 and +26. Once again Bernie has eroded that lead a bit, either through Time, Influence or Unicorn IOUs. You can’t tell which. In any event, with March 1 right around the corner, Hillary would have to slap another puppy to lose this one.
Vermont – Not much I can add here except it’s White and Bernie lives there. It’s New Hampshire For Bernie again.
In Virginia, two February polls have Hillary up from +12 to +22, so it looks like Virginia has increased its Hillary Love. It’s hers.
Wyoming– There are no recent polls on Wyoming at this moment. If they become available, I will update. Do horses and cattle vote?
But then, what the hell do I know?
Okay. Your turn.
Call that race!
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