Following is an essay by member moonpluto:
Well, what do I say…..
South Carolina was not just Hillary snuffing out a Berning candle, it was a full fledged fire extinguisher followed by Hillary shoving him into a presidential campaign political grave and battering the earth down with a shovel.
The media polls had Clinton winning anything in SC from +20 to +30. In the end it was +48. Clinton not only won AA’s by a bigger margin than Obama did in 2008, but she won, on trust, women, men, by wide margins, every single congressional district, taking 43/14 the delegates allocated.
That is not just a poll error underestimating strength, its a great big WTF happened to the polling? Or did Sanders voters just give up like he gave up on the south? A mix of both?
Hillary Clinton not only just matched Sanders’ small state blowout of New Hampshire of 22%, but she doubled it and a few more % thrown in for good measure. Its what we call a drubbing, a shellacking, a trouncing, an asswhipping.
So, with that in mind, Let’s have a look at where this race is going :
Clinton has now won 3 out of the first 4 states, 3 different states.
Iowa : mainly white, farming
Nevada : Latino, AA and white mixed state
South Carolina : majority black Democratic vote state.
Sanders has won :
New Hampshire, a 99% white very left leaning liberal state.
What does that tell us? It tells us Sanders will not be the nominee. Period!
Sanders is what we call a regional candidate,someone who does well around a few type of states but nowhere else, he is not catching light with diversity, they may listen but they ain’t biting on the bit and this is the death knell for his campaign. He may claim a political revolution, I can’t see it. The young voters he keeps harping on about seem to be doing something else, they did not bother appearing in South Carolina, they accounted for under 10% of the vote in SC, they did not turn out in great amounts either in Nevada. So, Bernie, give it up, this is not happening, young voters are a fickle crowd, they don’t show up and you don’t seem to realize that.
Clinton now has what we call mean momentum at the right time. Nevada threw her some momentum, SC has given her a massive rocket boosting momentum push now and people will react to those wins going into Super Tuesday….2 days away.
In that respect, these are 10 things that may or will happen now :
1 : Super Tuesday will again be South Carolina on steroids for Clinton. The southern states are polling so heavy for Clinton, its hard to see how Sanders does not get swamped and if the polls were that far wrong on SC, imagine what happens in the next massive AA states coming up on Tuesday.
2 : Sanders voters do not bother, they see the writing on the wall, people don’t like following losers
3 : People are rightly frightened at the thought of a Trump candidacy and see they need a fighter to beat Trump. They really don’t see that in Sanders, they know Clinton can take a punch and get up and punch right back after 2008 and after the start of this year of hell. Could this be a run to safety?
4 : There is really no time for Sanders to catch up physically and go around 11+ states for Super Tuesday. He left it too late or believed his own hubris that the kiddies would lift him adoringly with flying unicorns and angel wings, instead it was flying pigs and angels going up in flames. He is certainly a regional politician and does better 1 on 1 in liberal places only…I really believe they forgot this was a national campaign.
The closeness between the SC blowout and ST will be devestating as it will be framed through a period called “winners boost”, its a period where people want to be seen to go with the winner.
5 : Sanders spent in SC, $3 million dollars, had 200 staffers on the ground, countless people like Spike lee, Killer mike making radio ads and other bits all week and what did it get him, a 50% loss. Money well spent….i think not.
6 : People don’t fund losers. The money will dry up.
7 : SD’s now starting the decision process of moving en masse to Clinton, well what is left to go to her anyway.
8 : The wins on Tuesday become worse than expected for Sanders and he gets the horses head on Wednesday morning. Make no mistake if Sanders cannot win Massachusetts convincingly or for that matter Clinton wins it. If it splits delegates, its no good for him, he has to win it by a mile to compensate for the south. Its over and I mean over.
9 : 2/3rds of delegates awarded on Tuesday are from states Clinton is expected to blowout in. 1/3 from states that are small and Clinton will hold her own in. Can you see the maths problem here.
10 : According to pollsters and sites like 538, Sanders must win approximately 58% of every primary to catch up with Clinton’s SD lead and that is before we go into Super Tuesday. ST has a total of 878 pledged delegates. If Clinton wins the states we expect her to on Tuesday , they have 571 delegates, she’ll win about 380+ of 571 delegates and win about 150 out of the remaining 307.
Clinton is on course to win around 530+ out of 878 delegates on Super Tuesday. It could be much more depending on the size of the blowouts in the southern states.
Watch where the candidates are scheduled to be and it will tell you the battlegrounds. Where they are will tell you a lot.
Pollsters today have said they fear the Clinton vote on ST may be vastly underestimated after the SC thrashing and Sanders seems to be very worried about Massachussets today in his rhetoric. If he pivots to Mass by Monday, you know he’s in trouble.
So, what will Super Tuesday bring….YOU DECIDE!
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